Gulf of Maine HAB image

Harmful Algal Bloom Prediction in the Gulf of Maine

Weekly forecasts of blooms of the harmful alga Alexandrium fundyense in the Gulf of Maine are made each spring and summer using a coupled physical – biological model. The coupled system consists of a state-of-the-art, free-surface primitive equation Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) tailored for the Gulf of Maine using a multinested configuration and a population dynamics model for A. fundyense. The system is forced by realistic momentum and buoyancy fluxes, tides, river runoff, observed A. fundyense benthic cyst abundance, and climatological nutrient fields.

Details of the model and its verification can be found in

  • He, R. and D. J. McGillicuddy (2008), Historic 2005 toxic bloom of Alexandrium fundyense in the west Gulf of Maine: 1. In situ observations of coastal hydrography and circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113,C07039, doi:10.1029/2007JC004691. [PDF]
  • He, R., D. J. McGillicuddy, B. A. Keafer, and D. M. Anderson (2008), Historic 2005 toxic bloom ofAlexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine: 2. Coupled biophysical numerical modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research, 113(C7). [PDF]

To subscribe to the seasonal weekly newsletter reporting bloom predictions, contact us at OceanObservingAndModeling [at] ncsu [dot] edu.

Data from the model predictions of past years can be viewed by clicking the circles below:

Year Hindcast Weekly Nowcast/Forecast Seasonal Ensemble
2D 3D 2D 3D
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015