Weekly forecasts of blooms of the harmful alga Alexandrium fundyense in the Gulf of Maine are made each spring and summer using a coupled physical – biological model. The coupled system consists of a state-of-the-art, free-surface primitive equation Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) tailored for the Gulf of Maine using a multinested configuration and a population dynamics model for A. fundyense. The system is forced by realistic momentum and buoyancy fluxes, tides, river runoff, observed A. fundyense benthic cyst abundance, and climatological nutrient fields.
Details of the model and its verification can be found in:
To subscribe to the seasonal weekly newsletter reporting bloom predictions, contact us at OceanObservingAndModeling [at] ncsu [dot] edu.
Data from the model predictions of past years can be viewed by clicking the circles below:
|Year||Hindcast||Weekly Nowcast/Forecast||Seasonal Ensemble|